Market Update March 2023
After a roller-coaster real estate market in 2022, I’m happy to report that we are seeing more stability and a few positive trends in the first two months of 2023. In Phoenix, we currently have 1,601 active listings and 1,220 listings that are currently under contract. This is an improvement from 3 months ago, when we had 2,582 listings without a contract and only 834 pending listings.
Looking at all of Maricopa County, February recorded 5,910 closed sales - a 30% increase from January’s sales! The monthly median sales price was $440,000. That is down 3.3% from February 2022, but a slight increase from January’s $439,000 median price. With each passing week, fewer listings are getting canceled, fewer are expiring and more are going under contract. Check out the Listing Success Rate chart below.
First, we need to make the obvious point that there is always a disconnect in January due to the large number of listings that expire on Dec 31 each year. We need to ignore the drop and the rise one month later and instead focus on the overall trend.
We can see that the listing success rate hit a low point of 61% around Thanksgiving 2022. We have now recovered to the 72% mark. This is actually better than average, though we were around 85% to 95% during the crazy COVID period. We are observing a remarkably fast recovery that appears to have some staying power. Interest rates will likely bounce around as the bond market flinches with every report on inflation and employment. This may cause buyer demand to ebb and flow over the next few months, but we don’t expect to see a “huge market crash” many experts were predicting when the market began to shift last summer.
One of my favorite tools for discussing the market trends is The Market Cycle from The Cromford Report. We moved very quickly from euphoria to panic, but as the market continues to change, we are seeing some positive signs that make us hopeful about our spring selling season.
As always, we are here to help you navigate the changing market. If you’re thinking about making a move this year give me a call. It is a great time to talk about preparing your home for sale, determining your financing options, tracking interest rates and putting together a plan.
